IMM positioning

Not much happened last week. Fairly benign changes. which is suggestive of a wait and see approach which falls in line with the market been unclear as to when Fed will liftoff. Net short Euro increased slightly. Commodity currencies were also fairly stable. With Oil having a bit of a run along with Aud, CAD and Nzd I would suggest that the underlying weakness of these currencies remains intact. Would not be surprise to see falls back toward the levels of the previous week once the October exhuberance subsides.

Remember to be careful out there - I'm calling a bear market rally given the speed on the turnaround and lets face it fundamentals have not changed that much. Be fearful when others are greedy - good advice to heed this Quarter.

IMM Positioning

Whats happening this week. USD net longs sees more reduction. JPY given risk aversion status saw net shorts reduced. A couple of banks have been talking up a AUS + NZD Vs CAD basket as a China relative play. That is AUD and Kiwi subjected more to China shocks then the CAD which is more oil based. EUR reduced net shorts as well - I guess a bit of a shke out after the fomc move to 1.15

Good GDP print last week and a suggestion of a hawkish hold from Yellens speach suggest we might see an increase in net USD longs this week. Also look ut for NFP out later in the week and some China data.

IMM positioning

Net shorts continue to increase in all currencies except the cable and swissy. The NFP number of 223k last Friday missed expectations and when one considers this with some mixed results of late including home sales a September rate hike is more like 50:50. Lets wait to see what the CPI numbers to be released in the upcoming weeks show. With Euro and Jpy shorts at extreme I suggest that perhaps we wont see a major move just yet.

Kiwi shorts just continue to grow. With CB rhetoric very dovish there is only one way this bird is walking.