I have a challenge running on Twitter in 2016 to make 5000 pips this year. So far I am up 471 pips YTD. Follow us on Twitter to see how we are progressing in the challenge.
Well it didn't take long for China and the rest of the equity world to tumble. In the spirit of the eternal optimist though, it may be nice to get any correction over with early so to move on with the rest of the year. From a FX point of view currencies behaved like they should over the last week with the commoditiy currencies coming off, Yen strengthening on back of poor equity markets and the $ holding its own due to diverging monetary policy. These weeks are good as it all falls into place even though from a holistic portfolio picture FX gains may only partially offset losses from equities it is far better then being completely down trodden.
Lessons from August 2015 tell us that once this rout is over the old elastic band is likely to come into play from the release of all the shorts but one thing is for sure it is going to be a very interesting year. The fiery red monkey is letting us know its coming !!
Happy New Year and wishing you great success in 2016.
Just read a few articles which noted that its extremely difficult to predict the returns for the next 12 months, so I won't. But what is important in todays markets is to remain nimble and not tie yourself down to any long lasting belief, other than markets are very fluid (even if a lack of liquidity - ho ho) and can change at the flip of a coin.
Here at Hawk we translate that to mean; don't be greedy and take gains when they present themselves. The new paradigm is smaller notionals, keep take profit levels reasonable and leave no room for hope. Be early into any runs and early out and we should do just fine. We can use the algo traders/trades to our advantage knowing that their moves generally build on each other until they break as they move further away from economic reality - the short squeeze will be the play of the year.
There is only one prediction I will make for 2016 and that is its going to be a great year for my clients and I as we weave our way through the investment maze. Good luck to all and happy trading in 2016.
As you can see from the Eco calendar there is not alot happening this week. I have a long $yen position open based on an expected Santa rally but what to do with WTI. Anyways I hope all and sundry have a great break, whatever the meaning to you, and a chance to refresh for what will be another exciting year ahead.
If there is anything of note I will let you know. Cheers The Hawk
Well it finally happened and all the angst seem to dissappear. The Christmas gift arrived as expected in the form of 25bps and a US economy which is starting to show signs of recovery - just look at housing starts. Reaction nothing unexpected in the currency markets with most majors down but equities have had a great run and hopefully to continue for a while though with Christmas coming up can't see a lot of volume so time to relax and have time with the family.
2016 another year of volatility - yeap I think so - just watch commodities as they will keep as awake at night next year, yet again. Anyways remember if you must trade the next three weeks keep notionals small and keep control.
Lots of data coming out tonight b4 the Thanksgiving holiday - see calendar. My advice - a good idea to step aside - no one across the pond is going to ruin their Turkey dinner - more a case of position covering and taking risk off the table. Volume likely to be light so be careful, if you must. Sit back watch and enjoy a glass of vino.