Yawning a bit on the majors today - GBP making some ground but thats about it. Go play with the kids. ASX was up as expected but light volumes and for how long. More volatility ahead I would think. Overall quite a miserable quarter for equities but hoping for a bit of a run up to Y/E after we get quarter reporting out the way and no nasty surprises from NFP later this week.
Well wasnt Friday nice for the equity guys with the Dow up over 113 pnts on the back of Yellens speach. Europe also had a great surge and I now looking for the ASX to follow suit on Monday after closing down on Friday. Would be nice to make up some losses from the last month or so.
US is improving - China and Europe declining if one goes by their respective PMIs c47 & e52. So still looking for EURO and AUD shorts. On the back of the equity market Friday suggest sentiment could be on a short term upswing so wait for better levels esp. aussie.
Well theres a collective sigh of relief, especially if you happen to be a creditor. This has to be a positive for the markets against the gloom of slower growth and dovish angles from the Fed. How much of a positive remains to be seen but at least it has not added more to volatility. Its another issue out of the way for the time being however the largest challenge ie implementation and success is still along way down the road.
Markets are still volatile so be careful out there.
Following the theme from the last couple of weeks overall USD longs have been cut. However this time there was an interesting twist. EUR and JPY shorts did not reduce but rather increase as participants thoughts switched to the upcoming Fed meeting which as we now know they held rates. Thus no surprise we saw a good jump in those currencies last Friday albeit short lived. With Euro at least there is still the Greek vote today so more volatility ahead there. JPY some soft data also came out but overall the shorts are still modest.
I think when the Fed does eventually raise rates which will happen sooner or later these currencies are going to get crushed. The Aussie and Kiwi shorts were trimmed but probably more to do with the the fact they have been beaten to death of late. Looks like the world is depending on UK and USD to pull us thru a sluggish growth period.
In Australia Gough Whitlam who was one of our many Prime Ministers once said after being kicked "God may save the Queen but nothing will save the Governor General" perhaps today that might read "God may save the Queen but nothing will save the Aussie Dollar.....or Euro.....or Kiwi....etc".
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Break of 14 year trend line - should we start a pool to see how low it will go. Personally I sold my house earlier to short AUD/USD in the hope I can buy back in a year or two at 1/2 price. I mean what economics out there tell me that aussie house prices will continue to rise and rise forever when just about every other asset class is having a hard time of late. Of course this is no recommendation and one should remind themselves of the site disclaimer - your money your call.