Where to for the Euro !!

The Euro has had a great rise in 2017 to date and it would appear nothing can stop the common currency. There is good reason for this including
1. Being depressed for a long time - it has fallen from around 1.60 so on a technical basis needed some kind of pullback toward the 38.2-50% fibo of the fall from 1.40 at least in the medium term
2. USD weakness - Yellen and Co have been a bit doveish of late with muted inflation which has not been helped by low oil. Yes the US continues to talk about the rate trajectory still in place but inflation and Trump is making it hard to maintain a hawkish tone
3. Trump - the reflation trade started with tax cuts and healthcare reform and a very pro business stance. But nothing can get done and a non performing govt is starting to weigh
4. Eurozone whist not out of the woods yet has shown vast improvement over the past few years and now Draghi has started to mention reduction in QE. Whilst he was cautious in his speech last week the market reaction was having none of it - take the cues from market movers - don't fight it.
5. In a report by HSBC last week they are forecasting 1.20 by year end - Why?. Well their basis is that fast money ie specs have been quick to jump on the euro long bandwagon whilst medium and slow money has not yet put any force behind it. That is portfolio managers are still underweight euro stocks relative to the past and larger wealth and pension funds are yet to really increase reserves in the Euro. Thus when the last two categories start to increase allocation then this will be supportive. Hint: watch flows for uptick.
6. COT reports showing euro long positioning but not overstretched so still headroom.

Wow - I'm convinced but what about the downside. Yes need to be wary of US political issues being resolved as well as possibility of market thinking the run up has been to fast and coupled with more good numbers out of US such as GDP and an increase in oil may see a pullback. As always there is time to be all in but that doesn't mean being silly.

In terms of targets on the way up use the major fib lines especially where the fibo down from 1.60 and 1.40 are at similar levels.

Posted in Euro, EZ, Fed, USD and tagged .

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